Birdwatch Note
2024-10-07 19:26:30 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
As of October 7th, Nate Silver’s forecast gives Kamala Harris a 2.6% chance of winning exactly 319 electoral votes, not a 22% chance. See the plots labeled “Every Electoral College outcome in our simulations.” https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model?utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true
Written by 3B82F518139BCEBA7C1948DD7F17160FE9112A0A3E68C2239B72A754C61BB7E7
Participant Details
Original Tweet
Tweet embedding is no longer reliably available, due to the platform's instability (in terms of both technology and policy). If the Tweet still exists, you can view it here: https://twitter.com/foo_bar/status/1843300505747177979
Please note, though, that you may need to have your own Twitter account to access that page. I am currently exploring options for archiving Tweet data in a post-API context.
All Information
- ID - 1843372348432625823
- noteId - 1843372348432625823
- participantId -
- noteAuthorParticipantId - 3B82F518139BCEBA7C1948DD7F17160FE9112A0A3E68C2239B72A754C61BB7E7
- createdAtMillis - 1728329190725
- tweetId - 1843300505747177979
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
- believable -
- harmful -
- validationDifficulty -
- misleadingOther - 0
- misleadingFactualError - 1
- misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
- misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
- misleadingMissingImportantContext - 0
- misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 0
- misleadingSatire - 0
- notMisleadingOther - 0
- notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
- notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
- notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
- notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
- trustworthySources - 1
- summary
- As of October 7th, Nate Silver’s forecast gives Kamala Harris a 2.6% chance of winning exactly 319 electoral votes, not a 22% chance. See the plots labeled “Every Electoral College outcome in our simulations.” https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model?utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true
Note Ratings
| rated at | rated by | |
| 2024-10-08 23:06:09 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 12:10:41 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 09:54:00 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 09:22:45 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 06:13:32 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 03:13:18 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 02:45:07 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 02:38:40 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 23:46:04 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 23:03:14 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 21:24:51 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 20:15:37 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 19:25:07 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 19:11:06 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 17:25:09 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 16:33:00 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 16:29:28 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 16:04:31 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 15:46:50 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-18 21:17:21 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 09:25:46 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 08:31:01 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 03:36:07 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 01:50:52 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 01:13:21 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 00:53:29 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 00:00:36 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 19:52:54 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 18:48:04 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 17:03:31 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 16:51:02 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 15:33:39 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 14:44:43 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 18:58:34 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 16:45:00 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 10:39:01 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 08:30:19 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 08:01:55 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 07:31:08 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 07:30:58 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 02:21:10 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 23:15:42 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 21:50:18 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 21:02:56 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 20:49:34 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 20:37:27 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 20:01:37 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 19:49:09 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 19:48:19 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 19:23:19 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 18:27:19 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 17:22:35 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 16:59:38 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 16:20:27 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 16:10:28 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 16:10:01 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 14:44:54 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 14:38:22 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 14:34:44 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 09:03:58 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 06:53:46 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 05:06:08 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-08 01:41:29 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 23:32:05 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 21:13:38 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 19:36:09 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 18:48:09 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 17:27:10 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 16:07:55 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 15:49:21 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 15:45:01 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 15:07:49 -0500 | Rating Details | |
| 2024-10-07 14:52:30 -0500 | Rating Details |