Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-07 22:22:35 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: C29AD359694609D93E47A9FDB93ECFF45CE2A4110A3DB506F4BA700A2ECE4365
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Original Note:
As of October 7th, Nate Silver’s forecast gives Kamala Harris a 2.6% chance of winning exactly 319 electoral votes, not a 22% chance. See the plots labeled “Every Electoral College outcome in our simulations.” https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model?utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true
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