Birdwatch Note
2024-10-07 14:19:14 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling: In 2016 & 2020, the betting markets heavily favored the Dems, but the final results were relatively close in both elections. In 2022, most wrongly predicted the GOP would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
Written by 9B984F283AB5FA94320860A543309BDFE06F50F37F35AAEE722C0DB158458096
Participant Details
Original Tweet
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All Information
- ID - 1843295023300837449
- noteId - 1843295023300837449
- participantId -
- noteAuthorParticipantId - 9B984F283AB5FA94320860A543309BDFE06F50F37F35AAEE722C0DB158458096 Participant Details
- createdAtMillis - 1728310754978
- tweetId - 1843132050242777187
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
- believable -
- harmful -
- validationDifficulty -
- misleadingOther - 0
- misleadingFactualError - 1
- misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
- misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
- misleadingMissingImportantContext - 0
- misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 0
- misleadingSatire - 0
- notMisleadingOther - 0
- notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
- notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
- notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
- notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
- trustworthySources - 1
- summary
- There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling: In 2016 & 2020, the betting markets heavily favored the Dems, but the final results were relatively close in both elections. In 2022, most wrongly predicted the GOP would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
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