Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 13:26:57 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: FD0C9D187188A979DDF6407D2FD130077DC31383CF914724221E3DDF6C2BADC8
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling: In 2016 & 2020, the betting markets heavily favored the Dems, but the final results were relatively close in both elections. In 2022, most wrongly predicted the GOP would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
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