Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 04:31:37 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 998C9A41F7CDD39CB6A03CEE8A571C7A9478FFA26A3D2CC93D6ADB3E14DC1C1F
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling: In 2016 & 2020, the betting markets heavily favored the Dems, but the final results were relatively close in both elections. In 2022, most wrongly predicted the GOP would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
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