Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-07 19:51:18 UTC - SOMEWHAT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: DBFC301CB29EC183FE7AA9A472CC22FEDC6C65FF4D751FC8E780788AAF833974
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling: In 2016 & 2020, the betting markets heavily favored the Dems, but the final results were relatively close in both elections. In 2022, most wrongly predicted the GOP would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details