Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-12-30 03:24:35 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: A3AD387FF949BFF31B246D67F323FE540DBF15969D887F78B2B653969894FB59
Participant Details
Original Note:
This is one run of one model, not an actual forecast. The chances that this is how the forecast ends up exactly is low. Even actual forecasts have a 50 percent or less accuracy rate once the timeframe is over 10 days. https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/#:~:text=The%20Short%20Answer:,right%20about%20half%20the%20time.
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