Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-05-09 17:55:25 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: F2C248588E0D8D975C046A332A7570644DC0A0A830CFE34876EC499AB195A80B
Participant Details
Original Note:
This is not how probabilities work , probabilities are not additive if an event A has 20% chance of happening in a month, then the probability of it occurring at least once in 6 months is 1 - (1-0.2) ^6 = 0.737856 or roughly 73.7 % https://www.statology.org/probability-of-at-least-one-success/ https://x.com/naik_em/status/1788602665859227788
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