Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-05-10 16:11:31 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: D38C42075287BB9B2B6FFC01A256B6DE6DC5F29D2DB2A6D19C970C5614346DA9
Participant Details
Original Note:
This is not how probabilities work , probabilities are not additive if an event A has 20% chance of happening in a month, then the probability of it occurring at least once in 6 months is 1 - (1-0.2) ^6 = 0.737856 or roughly 73.7 % https://www.statology.org/probability-of-at-least-one-success/ https://x.com/naik_em/status/1788602665859227788
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