Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-05-10 13:17:10 UTC - SOMEWHAT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: AFA592936F26784BBD51BCCFEF906BF66A757E0488448B9A8FC479352318F522
Participant Details
Original Note:
This is not how probabilities work , probabilities are not additive if an event A has 20% chance of happening in a month, then the probability of it occurring at least once in 6 months is 1 - (1-0.2) ^6 = 0.737856 or roughly 73.7 % https://www.statology.org/probability-of-at-least-one-success/ https://x.com/naik_em/status/1788602665859227788
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