Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-05-10 02:08:33 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 37839532256691B928E71D07C3B6CAB2D205DA75D91BFE801740F7752319A83F
Participant Details
Original Note:
This is not how probabilities work , probabilities are not additive if an event A has 20% chance of happening in a month, then the probability of it occurring at least once in 6 months is 1 - (1-0.2) ^6 = 0.737856 or roughly 73.7 % https://www.statology.org/probability-of-at-least-one-success/ https://x.com/naik_em/status/1788602665859227788
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