Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-05-09 17:29:28 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 2D8DB1D5FB5AD541843CBD77A574A0BD9F7EFB11832A85A46C52A830DFC74AC8
Participant Details
Original Note:
This is not how probabilities work , probabilities are not additive if an event A has 20% chance of happening in a month, then the probability of it occurring at least once in 6 months is 1 - (1-0.2) ^6 = 0.737856 or roughly 73.7 % https://www.statology.org/probability-of-at-least-one-success/ https://x.com/naik_em/status/1788602665859227788
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