Birdwatch Archive

Birdwatch Note Rating

2023-11-23 23:21:20 UTC - HELPFUL

Rated by Participant: 60EEFBD0D6FB2872D52221FA34C3451F9E1119F3B9DFDE9EC52C9CBBA24F4A5D
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Original Note:

投稿者の話はOECDの国は低接種率でも21年末までに人口の10%程の陽性↓だという事に基づくようですが https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&country=TUR~COL~CRI~SVN~POL~SVK~CZE&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false 実際の感染数と陽性数は全く異なります。 例えばOECDの低接種国であるポーランドは累積陽性数は21年5月末で人口の7%程ですが↓ https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&country=~POL&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false 感染後にできるN抗体(抗体減衰等により既感染の完全な指標ではありません)の保持率は21年春に30%程です↓ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10472750/ なお日本は21年12月の時点で大都市で1-4%と報告されています↓ https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/10900000/000898612.pdf 西浦氏の論文でもそうした感染が報告される程度(reporting coverage)に関して仮定をおいて計算がされています↓ https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00320-6

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