Birdwatch Note
2024-10-31 19:33:07 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
Kalshi is a cryptocurrency betting platform, not a poll. Most political polls show Harris and Trump statistically tied: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris Kalshi does not cap individual wagers, so users with large contributions disproportionately affect the odds, i.e.: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/07/trumps-election-odds-spike-on-polymarket-as-musk-touts-election-betting-site/ https://www.newsweek.com/who-polymarket-mystery-trader-fredi9999-1969646 https://www.npr.org/2024/10/29/nx-s1-5132616/election-day-betting-trump-harris https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/PRES.pdf
Written by 2A6B630D0AEA2ACC36E2189A989B042C8F44788D5C6526EF4EAC8856A79A73D8
Participant Details
Original Tweet
Tweet embedding is no longer reliably available, due to the platform's instability (in terms of both technology and policy). If the Tweet still exists, you can view it here: https://twitter.com/foo_bar/status/1852021023874449815
Please note, though, that you may need to have your own Twitter account to access that page. I am currently exploring options for archiving Tweet data in a post-API context.
All Information
- ID - 1852071320785465393
- noteId - 1852071320785465393
- participantId -
- noteAuthorParticipantId - 2A6B630D0AEA2ACC36E2189A989B042C8F44788D5C6526EF4EAC8856A79A73D8
- createdAtMillis - 1730403187353
- tweetId - 1852021023874449815
- classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
- believable -
- harmful -
- validationDifficulty -
- misleadingOther - 0
- misleadingFactualError - 1
- misleadingManipulatedMedia - 0
- misleadingOutdatedInformation - 0
- misleadingMissingImportantContext - 0
- misleadingUnverifiedClaimAsFact - 1
- misleadingSatire - 0
- notMisleadingOther - 0
- notMisleadingFactuallyCorrect - 0
- notMisleadingOutdatedButNotWhenWritten - 0
- notMisleadingClearlySatire - 0
- notMisleadingPersonalOpinion - 0
- trustworthySources - 1
- summary
- Kalshi is a cryptocurrency betting platform, not a poll. Most political polls show Harris and Trump statistically tied: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris Kalshi does not cap individual wagers, so users with large contributions disproportionately affect the odds, i.e.: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/07/trumps-election-odds-spike-on-polymarket-as-musk-touts-election-betting-site/ https://www.newsweek.com/who-polymarket-mystery-trader-fredi9999-1969646 https://www.npr.org/2024/10/29/nx-s1-5132616/election-day-betting-trump-harris https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/PRES.pdf
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