Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-11-04 17:21:31 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 2BDD5B043D9ED280B1CFC548D8EFA893ADEC863EE230923577C43BF0720FB6EE
Participant Details
Original Note:
Kalshi is a cryptocurrency betting platform, not a poll. Most political polls show Harris and Trump statistically tied: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris Kalshi does not cap individual wagers, so users with large contributions disproportionately affect the odds, i.e.: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/07/trumps-election-odds-spike-on-polymarket-as-musk-touts-election-betting-site/ https://www.newsweek.com/who-polymarket-mystery-trader-fredi9999-1969646 https://www.npr.org/2024/10/29/nx-s1-5132616/election-day-betting-trump-harris https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/PRES.pdf
All Note Details