Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 08:26:45 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: FF1F9426B507651F6BB49D8DB385C6143A0FD828F5E0ADAF51EDABDFC0E1FC4B
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details