Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 05:43:34 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: FEA1D6FA80FD3C3C985B6DC1E7E023C9BECFC52B8480126389C1D612BCA07793
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
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