Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 16:14:41 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: FB58BFFD1D6B17F6EE840D8ED5521635C50CB26F6D1B0B032EE8B91AC3E73C7B
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details