Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 05:06:35 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: F87DB1F9924D6FFF724DC4D99039E1970E16146544D2CD7B345CF343FF25A434
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details