Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 02:56:34 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: F8603A886C6AC5B4A6CB8E51D8B3900BB3D08CE7014183D2F596538FBC5F8B53
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details