Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 13:32:52 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: F8111C6C08D29AF3A59D5216FC2271B2D5A7A6BC1E93A096AF9E17CE786C1160
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details