Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 16:50:17 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: EF227AB57C73F0CB0B43B1CB2843BF7FCB6DF03032B070D8149E0F00C3DC6513
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details