Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 22:31:37 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: ED90B6C2A9E74DCED58E5E999027F957956E0D635300C701FD097AC7B3DD9921
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details