Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 12:52:20 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: EBC91A8261C1B6915B3CBEB495E3B56A740AA39861B8C44F88F50E57B59159C1
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details