Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 07:47:06 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: EBC2B3046385EA11369D5A7E049EE0ABA875CA34D603A610A4BE42FC31E433B1
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details