Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 04:34:03 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: EAF6A402974680A614ADF2FD63F78FB362CB33ED08D940516F0EEFE17B582216
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details