Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 06:15:45 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: E9AFBC95553A5CF3B51D5D709A18ED2E4CDB96C779227E3559BAA45321563926
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details