Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 13:31:03 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: E438AE3D5A56580D0AC99AD25FE3BDE1CFC874A88C90FBACBFDA34CD109A52B1
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details