Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 23:07:16 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: DFF831498488A46F2B5DD8BCB508753DE6CF9CE2B70A639DAAA9AF72F9BA8B15
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details