Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-12-13 23:10:45 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: DE7A6A1E47AC90CA82D3C966F321DE8B51A40BFDD1891B4B155D15DCBCDE791C
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details