Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 12:07:00 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: D974F03F122043794A9686654DC958CA88B70F5CC0DFF80F08F23A45CB4BD70D
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details