Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 08:37:39 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: D86D5F38DFF359907E706EB7B96415DFCD085B9348BAE9BD5B756EE9B33895F3
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details