Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 16:53:28 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: D6B54F18FA6B6FDE9CB0D029FE0902B54276A6E5F755BA1E65B75F700714F35A
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details