Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 11:09:31 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: D6AEEB2E7AD057DA22A1259A11223A40C5384BB24E4B655D6850534F6A723934
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details