Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 11:41:29 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: D452F09D9F50ADE4D9092AFC75262B3BE93D4C1CA3D2DCDDB8EC970763182282
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details