Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 12:49:03 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: D29B4995040726B8120C708B1F0F254DAAE67FC028D183FD4B23013CD696EDF8
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details