Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 05:06:50 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: C9B3CC2F9B7AEBDFA50B0BDD65142010A775515C81127BE6E6CDB36384D47DB2
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details