Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 00:07:52 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: BF09093C1035670B7F0C1012CBD083CB0CE42A912AC722A0636A81F46520AB2F
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
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