Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 06:28:29 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: BF050B07A1DCD52A6E76543CF0ECE4AC9FDBE0DBDBEB7C44BE712E52307EB475
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details