Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 08:09:17 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: BCE30BA8BFAEBEEAB9F94D1C625A94389E732A17CBD2699776057072158D885E
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details