Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 00:10:36 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: B23175D1F320CBB23FCD3F87BA91DAA7F371B14C799B2BD3C7510F43B08736EC
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details