Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 21:17:06 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: ADDC131489DB44643C335AAD64262E45A01F9166E5C85E3ED26B454E904FCA13
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details