Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 20:39:05 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: AC055F56FD14CB7DFACCA5204CAABD718CAC1481FD2773D96F429C249C0DF1A6
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details