Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 14:29:21 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: AADADA5A107F017BEA48E913E4983421DBC99BF4BF7851A29D0493F8B80F9912
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details