Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-11 16:21:09 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: AAA89D35FC031064F12F9D7682FA49C9B7E5ADF784A95F3E49E160CB444D4C33
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
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