Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 04:09:33 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: AA31205F3909B77ACD644F9BF03BB5D1D517D8C23A74BFCA3264006CDB0188F2
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details