Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 04:35:08 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: A9CD643DD6AEB448A5B75FD68786DA3C8368B1178EFFA366BFA9E31ABAFD9259
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details