Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 11:10:32 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: A97F55A27F44DEB4F3345D64CC02D4093B57AD94FACAD92DC25A6B216F938DBD
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details