Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 08:11:45 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: A8791297BDA8F4E0DAAD6686691C93EA24D8B9DFD3CC960610D482CF861D018F
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details