Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 10:22:47 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: A79BC3D35BEAF670C155FB3A1EE5221286BE2AD49B92E499D0C2916829432979
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details